Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality · BİMTAŞ · 2016–2021
1/100,000 Istanbul Environmental Plan Revision
Legislative changes after the 2009 Istanbul Environmental Plan, the disaster-risk law no. 6306 and the major investments steering the city's growth made a revision necessary. We carried out the data collection, analysis, synthesis, spatial projections and scenarios that underpin the revision and the 1/25,000 master plans, together with a province-wide study of the service and industrial sectors. The plan targets 2035.
As technical coordinator we led a planning team of nearly 100 and a board of 25 university advisors. The process ran through workshops with district municipalities, the metropolitan municipality, central government, professional chambers, civil society and academia. Every layer of the plan was produced in GIS and documented in 86 thematic maps.
“An Istanbul that grows while protecting its natural and cultural heritage: resilient, with a high quality of life, innovative and competitive on a global scale.” — Slogan: An innovative city with its own identity.
Planning approach
The plan rests on four principles: sustainability, resilience, functionality and inclusiveness. The work was framed by three questions — “Where are we?”, “Where do we want to be?” and “How do we get there?” — and addressed at global, regional and city scale. Analyses were grouped under four axes.
Spatial structure
Natural environment (ecology, climate, geology, topography) and built environment: urban and rural settlements, farmland, dams, mining and energy sites.
Social structure
Quality of life, participation and equity; access to facilities and transport; housing and basic human needs.
Economic structure
Production and consumption in industry, services and agriculture; employment and dependency ratios; income–expenditure balance.
Governance
Inter-agency coordination, participatory and transparent city management, and a shared, up-to-date data platform.
Analyses at the scale of the Marmara Region
Istanbul can reach its global goals only if the Marmara Region around it becomes a well-organised city-region that shares roles and works together. So the analyses did not stop at the provincial boundary: across Marmara, together with Bilecik, Eskişehir, Bolu and Düzce, we studied land use, transport and logistics links, the hierarchy of centres, 2035 population and employment projections, and Istanbul's relations with its hinterland and regional economic trends at 1/500,000.
The draft Marmara Region Spatial Strategy Plan shows in seven categories where each province can share Istanbul's load: population, industry, food, energy, ports, airports and logistics. Tekirdağ and Bursa stand out as able to take on population, industry, food, port and airport roles together. Balıkesir can contribute population, food, ports and logistics; Çanakkale population, energy and ports; Eskişehir population, industry and food. The plan proposes a polycentric, balanced regional model, specialised mid-tier centres and a planning body with authority at regional scale.
Current state: land use (2016)
More than two thirds of the province is natural land — forest, farmland and water. About 14.8 million people live on 116,000 ha of built-up land, most of which lies in priority intervention zones for disaster risk.
| Use | Area (ha) | % |
|---|---|---|
| Natural land (forest 230,994; farmland 126,624; water 12,825) | 371.396 | 68,4 |
| Residential areas | 59.057 | 10,9 |
| Urban work areas (commerce, industry, military, etc.) | 48.566 | 8,9 |
| Vacant land | 25.435 | 4,7 |
| Open and green space | 21.365 | 3,9 |
| Transport (incl. airports) | 10.694 | 2,0 |
| Social infrastructure | 4.525 | 0,8 |
| Technical infrastructure | 1.859 | 0,3 |
| Total | 542.898 | 100 |
2035 projections
| Indicator | Result |
|---|---|
| Population (seven mathematical models and cohort-component method) | 18.96 – 22.02 million |
| Employed population | about 7 million |
| Housing floor space needed (25 m² per person) | 492 million m² |
| Public facility land needed | about 30% of developable land |
| Trips within the city | about 45% increase |
| Public transport share of trips | 30% → 40% target |
Three scenarios, one final scenario
Six alternatives based on falling, stable and rising population growth were narrowed to three scenarios. They were scored with multi-criteria evaluation; instead of picking the top scorer, the final scenario combines the strong and workable parts of each.
| Scenario | 2035 population | Contribution to the final scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline Growth (TBS) | 17.000.000 | Sustainability principles: lower densities, pedestrian- and cycle-first transport |
| Current Trends (MES) | 19.200.000 | Population trends |
| Polycentric Growth (ÇOGS) | 20.500.000 | Economic growth model and growth poles |
| Final scenario | 19.000.000 | European side 64%, Asian side 36% |
Macroform
Growth areas were bounded by absolute protection zones — drinking-water basins, forests and farmland. 38,000 ha were added to the 116,000 ha of built-up land: about 7,000 ha along the Kanal İstanbul route and 31,000 ha in other growth areas. The 2035 macroform covers 154,000 ha, 94,000 on the European side and 60,000 on the Asian side. 83.2% of developable land outside protection zones is used; the rest is kept natural. Areas at disaster risk or beyond natural thresholds are to be cleared, renewed or engineered.
Population and employment by region
Twelve sub-regions — seven on the European side and five on the Asian side — were grouped into five regions, which set the boundaries of the 1/25,000 master plans. To cut commuting between the two sides, jobs were distributed in line with population.
| Region | Sub-regions | Population 2016 | Population 2035 | Jobs 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region 1 · Europe | 1A–1D | 8.692.299 | 9.900.000 | 3.948.489 |
| Region 4 · Europe | 4A–4B | 643.991 | 1.200.000 | 332.643 |
| Region 5 · Europe | 5 | 239.458 | 1.100.000 | 275.900 |
| Region 2 · Asia | 2A–2C | 4.704.106 | 6.100.000 | 2.195.228 |
| Region 3 · Asia | 3A–3B | 524.262 | 700.000 | 147.740 |
| Istanbul | 12 | 14.804.116 | 19.000.000 | 6.900.000 |
For 2035 the plan foresees 5.57 million jobs in services, 1.26 million in industry and 70,000 in agriculture. The service share rises from 78% to 81%, while industry falls from 21% to 18% as polluting, land-hungry plants move to organised industrial zones on the periphery.
Six goals, 22 targets
1. Inclusive, resilient urban space
Protect historic and cultural heritage, steer growth by earthquake and disaster risk, raise the quality of place.
2. Nature and ecology
Adapt to climate change, prevent pollution, protect natural resources and ecosystems.
3. A society with high quality of life
Develop human capital, spread urban services equally, manage migration and the population–jobs balance.
4. Global player, regional balance
Competitiveness in finance, tourism and advanced services; a city-region approach across Marmara.
5. Innovative, high-value economy
Polycentric, tiered growth; technology- and knowledge-intensive sectors; spatial restructuring of industry.
6. Participatory, transparent governance
Integrated reporting, participation mechanisms and smart-city systems on a live database.
Key plan decisions
- A tiered system of centres — the CBD plus first-, second- and third-order sub-centres — balancing central functions between the two sides.
- Education, IT and technology development areas in Silivri, Arnavutköy, Pendik, Bayrampaşa and Sancaktepe; agri-tech centres in Silivri, Çatalca and Şile.
- Polluting industry embedded in housing moves to peripheral OIZs; vacated sites become public services, green space and cultural facilities.
- “Hub villages” organising rural production, storage and marketing; farm jobs growing from 17,867 to 70,000.
- Rail access to employment areas, interchange hubs and sea transport; lower transport emissions, renewable energy and green roofs.